The hardest evidence for a link so far comes from a team led by Marshall Burke of the University of California, which studied African wars from 1980 to 2002 and found that rising temperatures are indeed associated with crop failure, economic decline and a sharp rise in the likelihood of war. It predicted a “50% increase” in the chance of civil war in Africa by 2030.
http://www.economist.com/research/articlesBySubject/displayStory.cfm?story_id=16539538&subjectID=348924&fsrc=nwl
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