Interesting thesis that state failure is caused by deep tectonic shifts, specifically demographic increase.
I'd cite Yemen as an example.
4 years ago
For years the U.S. position on Somalia was to only support the TFG via the UN, AU and indirectly. Part of that policy was to ignore and even demonize independent-minded regional actors like Somaliland and Puntland. Meanwhile the aggressive use of outsider actors like Ethiopia and Uganda to directly intercede militarily created [an] unexpected resurgence of armed resistance.