Somali Famine & Al-Shabaab

Has the famine weakened al-Shabaab in any way?

Al-Shabaab has been enormously weakened by this crisis. Many are blaming al-Shabaab for catalyzing the [crisis] by locking out aid agencies. Al-Shabaab has been under enormous pressure from clan leaders in the region to act fast, but they have been dragging their feet, and when they reacted it was probably too late. Tens of thousands of children have already died. Tens of thousands of people have fled as refugees to eastern Kenya and southeastern Ethiopia. Many in Somalia, even those who initially supported al-Shabaab, are now blaming them and seeing them as culpable in this crisis.

Does this present an opportunity to stabilize the country?

If al-Shabaab was a cohesive organization and it was serious about averting humanitarian crisis in southern Somalia, then there would have been an opportunity. The problem is that you have a string of factions of al-Shabaab; you don't know who speaks for al-Shabaab. Even engaging them on the question of provisions of humanitarian supplies to the vulnerable populations in southern Somalia is no longer credible, because you don't know how senior or powerful that interlocutor is. Unless we know the power configurations within al-Shabaab, unless we know who calls the shots and who is in charge, it will be difficult for this crisis to have a peace dividend.

Potentially there is an opportunity that you may cut a deal with one faction or another. But what if you have a faction that doesn't like it, that creates its own challenges. As long as al-Shabaab is fragmented and deeply divided as a group, the possibilities of engagement for a positive result are very remote. Many had hoped that engaging al-Shabaab on humanitarian corridors and a ceasefire for a brief period [would] kick-start a positive dynamic. But I don't think we are there.

Do you think the international community is doing enough to alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Somalia and the rest of the Horn? And what more can they do?

For more, see here.

Stabilisation strategies and the protection of civilians

Better protected? Stabilisation strategies and the protection of civilians
25 March 2011 - Round-table, Geneva

...how and to what extent is the protection of civilians a stabilisation objective; how have stabilisation strategies contributed to enhanced protection of civilians in specific contexts; and what engagement is desirable between stabilisation and humanitarian actors on protection of civilians at global and country levels.

'Too few boots on ground'

'Too few boots on ground'
May 04, 2009
The Australian

AUSTRALIA will struggle to lead military operations in the South Pacific, according to analysts who argue the defence white paper has overlooked the crucial role of the army in stabilisation and peacekeeping missions.

Defence experts claim the white paper, which asserts an Australian "leadership role within the South Pacific", underrates the value of "boots on the ground" and focuses too heavily on the navy and airforce.

The head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre at the Australian National University, Hugh White, said the white paper showed indications of "sloppy drafting".

"The document does not show they have carefully examined whether the land forces we now have can achieve the strategic objectives they've set out," Professor White told The Australian yesterday.

"I think they've switched their attention so strongly to the maritime stuff that they've overlooked the adequacy of the land forces.

"What happens if Fiji goes pear-shaped? What happens if there is widespread violence in the PNG highlands? What happens if East Timor goes pear-shaped? Eight battalions doesn't cut it."

Alan Dupont, director of the Centre for International Security Studies at Sydney University, said most potential operations in the South Pacific would be "manpower-intensive".

"Your submarines are not that much use in those situations, where we need to take a leadership role," Professor Dupont said.

"There'll be all these messy type situations, everything from humanitarian intervention to peacekeeping."

Professor Dupont said there was a "very strong case" for the development of another infantry battalion.

"If you cut back on those numbers in the surface fleet, it frees up a lot of capital for things we use all the time, which is essentially ground-based forces," he said.

"I don't have a problem with acquiring a Collins-class submarine follow-on. But I do have a question mark over whether we need 12." Professor Dupont said there was a fundamental imbalance in defence spending.

"I think there should be some reweighting of the defence budget in the future," he said. "There is no substitute for boots on the ground.

"If you go back, since the early 1990s, in virtually every one of the operations which we have been involved in, it is essentially the ground forces that are doing most of the work. And yet they're getting the least amount of money."

But the former chief of operations of the multinational force in Iraq, retired Australian army general Jim Molan, offered a counter view.

"I would love army to have more resources," he said. "But I'd say that army should not be too disappointed. It was navy and airforce that needed the increase."

General Molan said it was the "overall incoherence" of the white paper that stakeholders should be concerned with.

"The paper promises everything to everyone," he said. "There is no connection between the strategic guidance and any of the numbers. Absolutely none."

The executive director of the Australia Defence Association, Neil James, said the white paper was "good overall" but lacked clarity on the replacement of the ageing armoured personnel carrier fleet.

He flagged the urgent need to replace them with infantry fighting vehicles, which he described as essential to modern armies.

He also said there was no explicit reference to a heavy armoured capability, essential for land forces in conventional warfare scenarios.

"There's one word missing from the paper that you never see: that's 'tank'," Mr James said. "And tanks save lives."

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25423972-2702,00.html